Team Valor calls audible for Animal Kingdom

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/17/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saturday marks the return to competition for 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom after eight months on the sidelines. The 4-year-old colt last raced in the Belmont Stakes in June.

Owner Team Valor International and trainer Graham Motion made a surprise move on Wednesday by entering the champion colt in a $60,000 allowance race on the turf at Gulfstream Park for Saturday. The 1 1/16-mile grass race has a six- horse field with none of the other five starters having close to Animal Kingdom's credentials.

Early this month, the colt's connections announced that the Eclipse Award winner would hit the track in the Tampa Bay Stakes on February 25 to begin his 2012 season.

"He (Motion) would have worked the horse seven furlongs next Monday to get him ready for the Tampa race, but for this kind of allowance race, I think the horse will be fine on Saturday," Team Valor president Barry Irwin said. "He's doing super, but we don't want him to be too primed for a big race first time back. We want him to get something out of the race, not leave his Dubai World Cup race on the course."

Animal Kingdom will have the services again of jockey John Velazquez for the colt's second start on the turf. Motion is using the grass race as a prep for the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31.

"I believe that I'm running him with the bare minimum of works that I would want to run him with. But with this race being this weekend, it gives me six weeks to Dubai, which I think gives me ample time for him to recover from the race," Motion indicated. "In whatever race we ran him in, the objective of running him was to get him to Dubai in the best possible shape.

"The problem with waiting until next weekend at Tampa is that it would be the only option I would have before running in Dubai. If for some reason we had bad weather like we had last weekend, I wouldn't have a backup plan. That's what's so attractive running this week."

Animal Kingdom was voted the 2011 champion 3-year-old male despite not having started the second half of the year. After finishing second in an allowance race last March at Gulfstream, the colt captured the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

For the Run for the Roses, Animal Kingdom was a 20-1 long shot in the 19-horse field. Ridden by Velazquez, he powered down the stretch to a 2 3/4-length victory over Nehro.

The Preakness, two weeks after the Derby, saw Animal Kingdom go off as the 2-1 favorite versus 13 rivals. Following a slow start, Velazquez got the colt rolling, but missed by a half length from catching Shackleford and jockey Jesus Castanon.

The Belmont Stakes was a lost effort for Animal Kingdom. He finished sixth, nearly 10 lengths behind Ruler On Ice. It was later discovered he had suffered an injury that ended his 3-year-old season.

"I believe he is a special horse that did not get to show how good he was, and I hope he gets that chance this year," Motion said. "This is just a start, but it doesn't all have to happen this weekend. But I hope he gets a chance this year to show what a super horse he is."

In seven career starts, Animal Kingdom has three wins and an equal number of seconds for more than $1.9 million in purses.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.